I have followed The Forbes 400 for most of my professional life, closely watching its changes. Some of the richest people in America came from families who built businesses over the decades--just from my hometown of Chicago we had the Wrigleys, Crowns and Pritzkers. Recently I've noticed hedge fund managers whose fortunes seem to come from out of the blue. This year 9 of the top 100 on the list made their fortunes in hedge funds. While George Soros (No. 14) has been well known for a long time, John Paulson (No. 20) was unknown outside hedge fund circles until he made $3.5 billion with a well-timed bet against subprime mortgages in 2007.

These days billions can be made fast, the way Sergey Brin and Larry Page of Google ( GOOG - news - people ) and Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg have joined the 11-figure club. Although very young, those entrepreneurs created revolutionary products that are likely sustainable for years to come. I am not sure if the hedge fund managers toward the top of the list have the same staying power. Few would argue they have revolutionized investing.

It reminds me in some ways of the home run bonanzas in baseball. If you look at numerical patterns over time, you can make an informed judgment about whether you have a trend or an anomaly.

In 1927 Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs. Roger Maris hit just one more than Ruth did 34 years later. Then 37 years after that Mark McGwire hit 70. Between 1998 and 2001 there were six single-player home run totals that exceeded every total in the history of the game. Originally we were enthralled. We wanted Superman, and that love for the long ball also gave the sluggers reason to swing for the fences (literally). Strikeouts were okay as long as home runs followed.

For most of the last six decades hedge funds have been a tiny part of the investing world. According to International Financial Services London, 130 hedge funds managed $130 billion in 1996; by 2006 about 9,000 hedge funds ran $1.5 trillion. From 2000-02 "making money in a down market" became to investing what a boatload of home runs were to baseball, and money poured into hedge funds.

I have nothing against making money in asset management, but hedge fund managers get paid 2% of assets invested plus 20% of profits generated in a calendar year. In other words, managers can swing for the fences with little penalty for striking out and huge rewards if they connect.

Why do I think the hedge fund heyday is over? First, the myth of Superman has passed. Yale's endowment, known for its hedge fund returns, lost nearly 25% in 2009, and hundreds of hedge funds went bust in the financial crisis. People may recognize that while some skilled and lucky managers make billions, most hedge fund investors don't profit similarly. I definitely agree with Warren Buffett, who in 2008 bet $1 million that an index fund would beat ten hedge funds over a decade with fees included.

When choosing companies for my portfolios, I prefer long, well-established, sustainable growth--not miraculous short-term spurts. When I think of a long track record of creating wealth for people, I think of Franklin Resources (BEN, 120). The company was founded by Rupert H. Johnson in 1947 and named after Founding Father Ben Franklin, known for his prudence and saving. Today it manages $664 billion globally. Even over the last, tough decade earnings have moved from about $2 per share to the $6 range. During that time the stock normally fetched 17 times forward earnings but now trades at a multiple of less than 13.5.

T. Rowe Price (TROW, 58) is a very similar story. Thomas Rowe Price Jr. founded this Baltimore asset manager, which originally managed individual clients' money. It later transitioned into mutual funds with the T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund and now has soup-to-nuts portfolio offerings and a well-earned reputation for moderation. The stock rarely looks supercheap based on trailing earnings, but the company has a habit of increasing its asset base at more than 10% annually. That's a buy in my book.

I also admire the slightly different business model of Northern Trust ( NTRS - news - people ) (NTRS, 51). Banker Byron Laflin Smith founded the company in a single room in Chicago to serve the city's affluent. It has retained its emphasis on serving the wealthy but now has $3.9 trillion in assets under custody on a global scale, with locations in Abu Dhabi and Beijing. Its forward earnings are now 50% higher than they were ten years ago, but the stock has fallen by more than 50% over that time, making it look especially attractive.